THE EFFECT OF EDUCATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND HEALTH COMPLAINTS ON POVERTYA Case Study of Regencies/Cities in West Java Province Using a Bayesian Linear Regression Analysis Approach

Abstract

Education, unemployment, and health complaints may contribute to increasing poverty levels. This study uses Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data from 2022–2023 for regencies/cities in West Java Province. The data were analyzed using Bayesian linear regression. The results indicate that the education variable has a very strong effect on reducing poverty, with a Bayes factor greater than 30. This factor is considered the key determinant in reducing poverty in regencies/cities in West Java. There is a 95% probability that the credible interval estimate for the effect of education on poverty reduction ranges from −1.925 to −1.072. Furthermore, unemployment and health complaint variables do not significantly affect poverty, with Bayes factors lower than 1. The R-square value obtained by including the three variables in the model reached 0.522.